The outcome of the 2024 presidential election could hinge on Pennsylvania, and one specific county — Northampton County — could determine how the state swings.
Northampton County is one of two bellwether counties in Pennsylvania, the other being Erie County. A bellwether county is a location where voting patterns accurately reflect the winning candidate of an election, John Kincaid, the director of the Meyner Center for the Study of State and Local Government at Lafayette College, said.
He said these types of counties can often be used to predict election results.
Pennsylvania has taken part in every U.S. presidential election, and research shows the state has correctly voted for the nationwide winner in 47 out of 59 elections — an 80% success rate.
Since 1912, Kincaid said Northampton County has voted in favor of the future president in all but three elections: 1968, 2000 and 2004.
As election day approaches, he said candidates have focused more on Pennsylvania and its swing counties, and Northampton is one of its most crucial areas.
“Pennsylvania is important, and within Pennsylvania, (Northampton County) tends to tell the story of what will happen,” Christopher Borick, the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said.
Kincaid said Northampton County has voted blue more than 66% of the time.
A key factor in what makes it a bellwether county is its demographic makeup, according to Christopher Borick, the director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.
“American politics is often defined by where you live,” he said. “Urban areas being more left-leaning, rural areas being much more conservative, and suburban areas being more competitive. And that’s the exact mix that is present in Northampton County, Pennsylvania.”
Borick said Northampton County includes cities like Bethlehem and Easton, suburban areas such as Forks Township and Bethlehem Township and regions like the Slate Belt, which is traditionally rural.
“Northampton County is a microcosm of the country,” Kincaid said. “What makes the county interesting is when it departs from its normal vote and votes for a Republican.”
In this election, Kincaid said no one can confidently predict which candidate the county will vote for because polling results indicate that politicians are running “neck and neck.” Northampton County may reflect how the whole country goes again, but no one will know until after the election results are in.
Brian Fife, the chair of Lehigh’s political science department, said either party could win the Northampton County vote.
“A couple of percentage points are going to separate in the popular vote, who wins and who loses,” Fife said. ”The margin of victory in the electoral college is not projected to be very large, regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins.”
In 2020, President Biden won the county by less than 1%, or about 1200 votes, according to Borick’s piece in The Ripon Forum.
Both national and international reporters have focused on this area because of its predictive power, according to Borick.
“Voters in the area really get to be in the national and international spotlight because of the historic bellwether role that’s been played here,” he said.
Olivia Byers, ‘25, chose to register to vote in Pennsylvania rather than her home state of Massachusetts because she believes her individual vote has more pull in Northampton County.
She said she recognizes that Northampton County has swung both ways in past elections, so it can be stressful to vote here.
She canvasses for Project 26, an organization that empowers student voters and promotes democracy in Pennsylvania, and she said it means a lot for individuals to exercise their civic duty.
Byers said Project 26 has been knocking on doors leading up to the election and has helped over 700 Lehigh students register to vote. After registration closed, they started asking people to pledge to vote to gather data for the election and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris.
“I know a lot of people don’t like to discuss politics, but in such a tumultuous time, I think it’s so important to do your research, understand the candidates’ perspectives (and) what you’re voting for,” Byers said.
Kincaid said people aged 18 to 30 have a much lower voting turnout than those who are 65 and older. Colleges in Northampton County try to get their students to register in Pennsylvania to increase this turnout, especially since each vote could sway the county one way or the other.
“1000 votes could make a difference in this county,” Kincaid said. “If you live in Northampton County, given it’s so close, and you want your candidate to win, you better get out and vote, otherwise the other candidate may win.”
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