NBA Contenders: Mapping out the current landscape

As we move past the trade deadline and All-Star Break, we can begin to make sense of the current state of the NBA. As I did before, around this time last year, I will be splitting NBA contenders into tiers, based on their chances of bringing home the championship.

Last year, many of my placements looked puzzling by the season’s close. So, keep in mind that this is as of February, and much can change from now until the Larry O’Brien trophy is hoisted in mid-June.

Tier 1: Powerhouses

• Boston Celtics

• Oklahoma City Thunder

• Cleveland Cavaliers

• New York Knicks

With the NBA looking somewhat top-heavy this season, I would be surprised if a team outside of these powerhouses won the championship. Barring injuries, the race for the NBA Finals should come down to these four teams. 

The Boston Celtics are the defending champions. With essentially the same team as last season, there’s no reason to think they couldn’t do it again. That’s all there is to say about this team — they’re dominant when they need to be, and they do everything on the floor at an elite level.

The Thunder have a stacked roster, led by MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They were great last season and only got better with the additions of Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso in the offseason. With another year of experience under their belt after last year’s disappointing playoff exit against the Dallas Mavericks, the Thunder should be the heavy favorites in the Western Conference, with nobody else possessing the type of team they do.

The Cavaliers came out of nowhere this season, starting 15-0 and not looking back since. As of Feb. 21, they are tied with the Thunder for the best record in the NBA at 44-10. Their roster is similar to what it’s been in past years but with significant improvements. First of all, the Cavs moved on from coach J.B. Bickerstaff in favor of Kenny Atkinson, who has revolutionized the Cavs’ offense and unlocked new versions of stars Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Also, the Cavs made a deal with forward De’Andre Hunter only hours before the trade deadline, filling a void on the wing that has been felt in recent years, making this team a well-rounded force that can match up with anybody in the Eastern Conference.

The Knicks squeaked their way onto this tier, mostly because I see them as somewhere in between the top three teams and the rest of the NBA. However, I see them as closer to the Celtics, Thunder and Cavs than everybody else, mostly because of their explosive offensive ability. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have arguably been the best duo in the NBA this season, supplanted by elite shooting in Mikal Bridges and Ogugua “OG” Anunoby. Yet, I have concerns about their defensive ability when stacking up with the top three teams, as they lack a true rim protector with Towns being much more of an offensively-focused center. They should have a rim protector with Mitchell Robinson coming back soon from injury, but his health and ability to play big minutes in the playoffs remain a question.

Tier 2: Could Compete with the Thunder in the West

• Memphis Grizzlies

• Denver Nuggets

• Los Angeles Lakers

• Los Angeles Clippers

• Dallas Mavericks

I made this tier a Western Conference exclusive because of how wide open the West is outside of the Thunder. Indeed, the West is the Thunder’s to lose, and these are the teams that could make that happen.

The Grizzlies have been quietly great this season at a record of 36-18, which currently puts them second in the Western Conference. This has been largely spearheaded by the exceptional two-way ability of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the explosive play of Ja Morant. However, they may lack the experience and depth needed to overcome the Thunder.

I have the Nuggets in this tier simply because of my respect for the best player in the world, Nikola Jokić. “The Joker” is exceptional and has elevated this team to contender status, but the depth they had in their 2023 title run is no longer there. 

Both teams in L.A. are here because of the potential of their star duos — LeBron James and Luka Dončić for the Lakers, and James Harden and Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers. However, the Lakers yet again likely lack the necessary depth for the championship run, and counting on James to go on a deep playoff run in his 22nd season may be too much to ask, even for arguably the greatest player of all time. Meanwhile, for the Clippers, counting on Leonard to be healthy for a postseason run also feels like too much to ask. However, if the Clippers somehow stay healthy, you never know what will happen.

On paper, the Mavericks are the team within this group with the best chance at going to the NBA Finals. They should be very strong, defensively led by a frontcourt including Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford. They’ve also matched up extremely well with the Thunder in the past two seasons. However, the Mavs likely lack the superstar-level player needed to win in the NBA Playoffs. Davis and Kyrie Irving are close to that level and have both won NBA titles, but they were both alongside the great LeBron James.

Tier 3: Could Make it Interesting in the East

• Milwaukee Bucks

• Indiana Pacers 

The Eastern Conference feels less wide open than the West this year. It seems to be a three-team race between the Celtics, Cavs and Knicks, but the Bucks and Pacers are close enough to have a shot or at least to win a playoff series or two.

The Bucks strengthened their chances by acquiring Kyle Kuzma at the trade deadline in a deal involving Khris Middleton, making them younger and more athletic on the wing. This is what the team needed as one of the oldest rosters in the league, but I don’t think it pushes the team into true contender status. The team relies heavily on star duo Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and it doesn’t get much offensive production outside of that. Also, Bucks coach Doc Rivers is infamously lackluster at making adjustments in the postseason, which typically spells disaster for his teams.

The Pacers are a young, fun and fast team. However, they don’t have the firepower to compete with the East’s best. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are great players, but this duo will likely cap out at an Eastern Conference Finals appearance, not a championship.

Of course, there are relevant teams  I didn’t mention — the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs recently acquired stars Jimmy Butler and De’Aaron Fox. There’s also the young and upstart Houston Rockets, the intriguing Minnesota Timberwolves, and more. 

This is not to say that these are not good basketball teams. Rather, I just don’t see a path to the championship for them. 

I have my doubts about the teams outside of Tier 1, but if absolutely everything goes right, they could at least put themselves in a position to compete for a championship.