Is quarterback play getting worse?

In the NFL, it feels like we’re in the age of offense. 

Nearly all rules are catered toward offenses scoring more points, a trend that continued this offseason with banning the “hip-drop” tackle and introducing new kickoff rules that start most offensive drives from the 30-yard line instead of the 25. 

Offenses seem more nuanced and varied than ever before. 

Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are redefining the position with their ability to throw accurately from the pocket while making dazzling plays off-script. Additionally, quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts embody the dual-threat quarterback who can punish defenses with their legs just as much as their arms.

However, I recently came across a rather shocking statistic. Through two weeks of the NFL season, the number of passing touchdowns there’s been over the past seven years is as follows: 114 in 2018, 105 in 2019, 110 in 2020, 110 in 2021, 105 in 2022, 86 in 2023, and 66 in 2024. (pending MNF, there were three more passing TDs on Monday Night Football).

This shows a clear downtrend in passing despite the aforementioned factors favoring offensive production in today’s NFL. Why is this? Has offense gotten worse in recent years? Is quarterback play declining?

If this is an overall offensive problem or a passing problem, let’s look at the total touchdowns per week since 2018 (rounded to the nearest whole number): 80 in 2018, 78 in 2019, 88 in 2020, 79 in 2021, 73 in 2022, 72 in 2023, and 64 (through 2 weeks) in 2024. 

Once again, there is a downward trend. Touchdowns per week have declined 20% in just seven years, amidst rule changes and emerging offensive talent that should favor offensive dominance. However, this isn’t nearly as large as the 42% decline in passing TDs through the first two weeks since 2018, so it’s fair to assume the passing game has the most to do with this offensive decline.

So, what is at play here? Is it simply a decline from the golden era of quarterbacks, when players like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were at the peak of their powers? Or is it something else?

One thing to consider is the way defenses have adjusted to the dominant passing attacks of years past. If you watch an NFL game today, you may notice that an overwhelming majority of throws are for less than 10 yards, with many of them not even reaching the line of scrimmage. The average depth of target — how far the ball travels in the air per pass — in week one this season was 6.9 yards, a full yard down from 7.9 yards in 2019. 

Much of this has to do with the emergence of two high safeties in most defenses. In week one, defenses played with two high safeties 60% of the time, compared to just 38.4% in 2019. This is a sharp increase, and it has caused offenses to be more conservative. With two high safeties, it’s extremely hard to pass the ball far downfield, as players need to get it over two safeties playing deep to do so.

In reaction to this, offenses have begun to rely on the run game and short passing game to monotonously get the ball downfield, slowing play down and thus decreasing scoring output. 

When an offense can’t get any splash plays, it’s more painstaking to score consistently.

Playing with two high safeties has been a staple of football for decades, but its widespread popularity is new — largely due to current Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Vig Fangio. 

Throughout his long career as a defensive coordinator and head coach, Fangio has slowly revolutionized NFL defenses to strongly favor two high safety looks. 

He has also popularized split coverages like Cover 6 defense, where the two halves of the field are in different defensive alignments. In traditional defenses, the whole field follows the same principle, such as man coverage or a variant of zone coverage. But split defense complicates things by putting cover 2 on one side and cover 3 on the other, for example. This makes it harder for offenses to adjust and run their offense, further decreasing scoring output.

Another factor in decreased scoring is offensive line play. I’ve noticed a worsening of offensive lines in recent years, and it feels like there’s only a handful of O-lines that are competent today.

This can be attributed to football moving away from constant physical and padded play during practices at all levels of play. An offensive lineman has an inherently physical job that serves little purpose in no pad, seven-on-seven type of environments. This leaves offensive linemen with little practice time, making it extremely difficult for them to develop. 

Meanwhile, pass rushers have shifted more towards speed and agility in recent years. They have developed extremely well, creating a mismatch between offense and defense that makes it harder for quarterbacks to throw effectively. Without a strong offensive line, it’s nearly impossible to run a competent offense.

So, between the emergence of complex coverages that force offenses to play it safe and a decline in play quality, it’s evident why offenses have been struggling in the last few years.

Does this struggle mean that the quarterback position isn’t uber-talented like I claimed at the beginning?

I don’t think so. 

Quarterbacks and offenses are just as talented and nuanced as ever before, but defenses have simply caught up. The environment NFL quarterbacks are in today is extremely challenging, and that’s just something we have to get used to as fans. 

The game may be shifting back to the old days of ground-and-pound, low-scoring football. Maybe the days of constant shootouts with quarterbacks lighting up the field week in and week out are over.